Thus, continuing on the current trajectories would lead to an estimated 625,000 cumulative deaths associated with the pandemic through the next year in the United States. In addition to COVID-19 deaths, studies suggest increased deaths from other causes, amounting to almost 40% of COVID-19 related deaths. Seasonal factors could increase mortality, although whether COVID-19 will display a large seasonal pattern is unknown. If these rates continue, another 250,000 deaths can be expected in the next year. In the US, approximately 5,000 COVID-19 deaths are occurring per week and the estimated effective reproductive number (R t,ie, the average number of people who become infected by a person with SARS-CoV-2 infection) is about 1. To date, approximately 200,000 deaths have been directly attributable to COVID-19 many more will doubtless occur. Lower output is not the only economic cost of COVID-19 death and reduced quality of life also can be measured in economic terms. The Congressional Budget Office projects an estimated total of $7.6 trillion in lost output over the next decade.
#Congressional budget office cost of iraq war full#
But the virus is ongoing, and thus full recovery is not expected until well into the future.
The federal government offset much of the initial loss due to the shutdown, which has averted what would likely have been a new Great Depression. Workers not at work have less to spend, and thus subsequent business revenue declines. For 20 weeks beginning in late March, 2020 new unemployment claims exceeded 1 million per week as of September 20, new claims hover just below that amount. Prior to COVID-19, the the greatest number of weekly new unemployment insurance claims (based on data from 1967 on) was 695,000 in the week of October 2, 1982. Since the onset of COVID-19 in March, 60 million claims have been filed for unemployment insurance. However, increased investment in testing and contact tracing could have economic benefits that are at least a 30 times greater than the estimated costs of the investment in these approaches.
These costs far exceed those associated with conventional recessions and the Iraq War, and are in the same range as those associated with global climate change. This viewpoint aggregates mortality, morbidity, anxiety, and direct economic losses to estimate the total cost of the pandemic in the United States, on the optimistic assumption that it will be substantially contained by the fall of 2021. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is the greatest threat to prosperity and wellbeing facing the United States since the Great Depression.
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